I am going to attempt to pull a Stephen Colbert and progonsticate about the Oscars. He nailed it last year like he had inside information. Lets see if I can do the same. My picks are going to be based on how predictable I think the Academy is, not entirely on what I think should win.
Babel is out. No chance. Too small, and too little seen. I mean who is talking about it? Plus the critics aren't in love with it. And it too, too obviously wants to be this years crash. Nobody likes a copycat. At least not one that is so cravenly obvious.
The Queen? Its British so it is a strong contender. The Academy loves brit cinema. I do too. But nope.
Little Miss Sunshine? This is obscure and quirky enough to slip past the heavyweights. But they did overlook completely The Royal Tenenbaums which was easily the biggest mistake of 2001. A travesty!
Letters from Iwo Jima Its Eastwood. Sometimes it seems like if he makes a serious movie the man just collects his Oscar. And this is by all accounts a beautiful movie. Clint is the heavy favorite.
The Departed. The Academy has been kicking Marty in the nuts for years. They just seem to get off on screwing him over. This was my favorite movie of the year, but i'm picking it because I think this is they year for Marty. The Academy has heard alot in the media about how they have screwed Scorcese. I seriously think he could have done Ghostbusters 3 and gotten the gold man.
This goes to Marty as well. Its his year. Though Eastwood is always dangerous.
Best Actor in a leading role?
Peter O'Toole for Venus. He has never recieved one, and I am guessing sweet roles like this are going to be thin on the ground for him. So it goes to O'Toole. THough...Forrest Whitaker has a shot. Ryan Gosling too. The Academy loves villians and very, very flawed protaganists.
Actress in a Leading role?
My guess is this will be a shoot out reminiscent of the The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, between Judi Dench, Helen Mirren, and Meryl Streep. Distinguished, and utterly professional.
Actor in supporting role?
This is between Alan Arkin and Djimon Hounsou. Eddie Murphy and Mark Walberg may be shockingly good actors, but nobody takes them seriously enough. And who the hell has heard of Jackie Earle Haley? Arkin has been brilliant for years so I think he has to be the heavy favorite.
Best Actress in a supporting role?
THe academy could easily give the Oscar to Abigail Breslin. But the naked golden guy is probably going to Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls.
Best Original Screenplay?
Eastwood, Haggis for Letters from Iwo Jima.
Best Screenplay based on previous work:
The Departed seems strong here. Its got the buzz but who knows.
I think that covers the major league.